The Holy Grail 2.5: NCAA Player Ratings (1/4/2012)

EDIT: I have updated my methodology and made things a little easier to understand, I hope: http://www.thebasketballdistribution.com/2012/01/no-apologies-just-numbers.html

Now that Sports-Reference.com uses the same advanced stats for NBA and College players, it has become very simple and straightforward to create a statistical +/- based on advanced stats for college players.

BORING STUFF:

In order to adjust for college, I simply use each advanced stat* divided by its league average. Then, applying the same to college works well. I fit the 2010-2011 season's worth of raw statistical +/- data to each team's efficiency margin, and then to their adjusted efficiency margin. I then built a model that combines raw statistical +/- and team strength of schedule (simply Adjusted Efficiency Margin mins Raw Efficiency Margin, via kenpom.com) to give us an "adjusted Statistical +/-" that we will call (as we have before) Efficiency Impact.

/END BORING STUFF

For each player, we can look at Efficiency Impact per 100-possessions, and Team Efficiency Impact(their efficiency impact times the % of their team's possessions they played in).

Here are the top 100 players in both of those categories. First, efficiency impact per 100 possessions (25% of teams' minutes played to qualify)

rank	player	team	Efficiency Impact/100
1	Jared Sullinger	Ohio State	19.4
2	Russ Smith	Louisville	16.8
3	Thomas Robinson	Kansas	15.8
4	Damian Lillard	Weber State	15.8
5	Mike Scott	Virginia	14.9
6	Dion Waiters	Syracuse	14.7
7	James Southerland	Syracuse	14.0
8	JaMychal Green	Alabama	13.9
9	Cody Zeller	Indiana	13.7
10	C.J. McCollum	Lehigh	13.6
11	Marcus Denmon	Missouri	13.4
12	Anthony Davis	Kentucky	13.2
13	Jae Crowder	Marquette	13.2
14	Jared Berggren	Wisconsin	13.1
15	Isaiah Canaan	Murray State	12.9
16	Jarrod Jones	Ball State	12.8
17	Brian Conklin	Saint Louis	12.5
18	Jamaal Franklin	San Diego State	12.4
19	Ryan Pearson	George Mason	12.1
20	Herb Pope	Seton Hall	11.7
21	Doug McDermott	Creighton	11.5
22	Arsalan Kazemi	Rice	11.4
23	Kevin Jones	West Virginia	11.4
24	Anthony Raffa	Coastal Carolina	11.3
25	Miguel Paul	East Carolina	11.3
26	Chase Tapley	San Diego State	11.2
27	Ricardo Ratliffe	Missouri	11.2
28	Ryan Evans	Wisconsin	11.1
29	Henry Sims	Georgetown	11.1
30	Draymond Green	Michigan State	10.9
31	Cody Ellis	Saint Louis	10.8
32	Luke Martinez	Wyoming	10.6
33	Jereal Scott	Stephen F. Austin	10.6
34	Noah Hartsock	Brigham Young	10.5
35	Mike Moser	Nevada-Las Vegas	10.5
36	Tyler Zeller	North Carolina	10.4
37	Carlos Lopez	Nevada-Las Vegas	10.4
38	Quinn Cook	Duke	10.3
39	Will Barton	Memphis	10.3
40	Kris Joseph	Syracuse	10.3
41	Rob Jones	Saint Mary's (CA)	10.2
42	Dominique Sutton	North Carolina Central	10.2
43	Jordan Taylor	Wisconsin	10.2
44	Jason Clark	Georgetown	10.2
45	Ian Hummer	Princeton	10.2
46	Steven Werner	Sam Houston State	10.1
47	Leonard Washington	Wyoming	10.1
48	Robert Covington	Tennessee State	10.1
49	Drew Gordon	New Mexico	10.0
50	P.J. Hairston	North Carolina	10.0
51	Trevor Releford	Alabama	9.9
52	Tony Mitchell	Alabama	9.9
53	Ryan Kelly	Duke	9.8
54	William Buford	Ohio State	9.8
55	Terrell Holloway	Xavier	9.7
56	Kenny Boynton	Florida	9.7
57	Harrison Barnes	North Carolina	9.7
58	John Henson	North Carolina	9.7
59	Terell Parks	Western Illinois	9.6
60	Victor Oladipo	Indiana	9.6
61	Carl Hall	Wichita State	9.5
62	Deshaun Thomas	Ohio State	9.4
63	Davante Gardner	Marquette	9.4
64	Ken Horton	Central Connecticut State	9.4
65	Javon McCrea	Buffalo	9.4
66	Joe Ragland	Wichita State	9.4
67	D'Aundray Brown	Cleveland State	9.4
68	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Kentucky	9.3
69	Steven Pledger	Oklahoma	9.3
70	Donte Poole	Murray State	9.3
71	Robbie Hummel	Purdue	9.3
72	Brandon Fortenberry	Southeastern Louisiana	9.3
73	Doron Lamb	Kentucky	9.3
74	Khris Middleton	Texas A&M	9.2
75	Evan Smotrycz	Michigan	9.1
76	Jackie Carmichael	Illinois State	9.1
77	Jorge Gutierrez	California	9.0
78	Chace Stanback	Nevada-Las Vegas	9.0
79	Velton Jones	Robert Morris	9.0
80	Jaquon Parker	Cincinnati	9.0
81	Kenton Walker	Saint Mary's (CA)	8.9
82	Kevin Pangos	Gonzaga	8.9
83	Erick Green	Virginia Tech	8.9
84	Quincy Acy	Baylor	8.8
85	Nate Wolters	South Dakota State	8.8
86	Mark Lyons	Xavier	8.8
87	Arnett Moultrie	Mississippi State	8.8
88	D.J. Cooper	Ohio	8.7
89	Sheldon McClellan	Texas	8.7
90	Jamar Samuels	Kansas State	8.7
91	Hollis Thompson	Georgetown	8.7
92	Trevor Mbakwe	Minnesota	8.7
93	Reggie Bullock	North Carolina	8.7
94	Tony Snell	New Mexico	8.7
95	Jamal Fenton	New Mexico	8.7
96	Brad Waldow	Saint Mary's (CA)	8.6
97	Scott Saunders	Belmont	8.6
98	Mike Dixon,	Missouri	8.6
99	Maurice Kemp	East Carolina	8.5
100	Jamar Gulley	Missouri State	8.5

rank	player	team	Team Efficiency Impact	Efficiency Impact/100	Min%
1	Thomas Robinson	Kansas	12.3	15.8	77.7%
2	Damian Lillard	Weber State	12.1	15.8	76.8%
3	Jared Sullinger	Ohio State	11.8	19.4	61.0%
4	Jarrod Jones	Ball State	11.3	12.8	88.6%
5	Mike Scott	Virginia	10.7	14.9	72.2%
6	Marcus Denmon	Missouri	10.5	13.4	78.6%
7	C.J. McCollum	Lehigh	10.4	13.6	76.3%
8	Kevin Jones	West Virginia	10.1	11.4	88.8%
9	Isaiah Canaan	Murray State	9.8	12.9	76.1%
10	Herb Pope	Seton Hall	9.7	11.7	83.2%
11	Anthony Davis	Kentucky	9.5	13.2	72.3%
12	Anthony Raffa	Coastal Carolina	9.5	11.3	84.1%
13	Cody Zeller	Indiana	9.2	13.7	67.1%
14	Chase Tapley	San Diego State	9.0	11.2	80.7%
15	Jae Crowder	Marquette	9.0	13.2	68.2%
16	Draymond Green	Michigan State	8.8	10.9	80.9%
17	Jordan Taylor	Wisconsin	8.8	10.2	86.4%
18	Ryan Pearson	George Mason	8.8	12.1	72.9%
19	Brian Conklin	Saint Louis	8.7	12.5	69.6%
20	Jared Berggren	Wisconsin	8.7	13.1	66.7%
21	Ian Hummer	Princeton	8.6	10.2	84.5%
22	Will Barton	Memphis	8.6	10.3	83.2%
23	Miguel Paul	East Carolina	8.5	11.3	74.7%
24	Rob Jones	Saint Mary's (CA)	8.4	10.2	82.2%
25	Noah Hartsock	Brigham Young	8.3	10.5	78.6%
26	Doug McDermott	Creighton	8.2	11.5	71.1%
27	William Buford	Ohio State	8.2	9.8	83.5%
28	Russ Smith	Louisville	8.2	16.8	48.4%
29	Dominique Sutton	North Carolina Central	8.1	10.2	78.9%
30	Tony Mitchell	Alabama	7.9	9.9	80.0%
31	Dion Waiters	Syracuse	7.8	14.7	53.2%
32	Nate Wolters	South Dakota State	7.8	8.8	88.6%
33	Ryan Evans	Wisconsin	7.7	11.1	68.8%
34	Robert Covington	Tennessee State	7.6	10.1	75.5%
35	Mike Moser	Nevada-Las Vegas	7.6	10.5	72.5%
36	Kenny Boynton	Florida	7.6	9.7	78.0%
37	Ken Horton	Central Connecticut State	7.6	9.4	80.4%
38	JaMychal Green	Alabama	7.5	13.9	54.0%
39	D'Aundray Brown	Cleveland State	7.5	9.4	80.4%
40	Jason Clark	Georgetown	7.5	10.2	73.6%
41	Arsalan Kazemi	Rice	7.5	11.4	65.2%
42	Drew Gordon	New Mexico	7.4	10.0	74.0%
43	Kris Joseph	Syracuse	7.4	10.3	72.2%
44	Terrell Holloway	Xavier	7.4	9.7	76.0%
45	Jordan Theodore	Seton Hall	7.4	7.7	95.9%
46	Jereal Scott	Stephen F. Austin	7.4	10.6	69.8%
47	Jamaal Franklin	San Diego State	7.2	12.4	57.7%
48	Trevor Releford	Alabama	7.1	9.9	71.9%
49	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Kentucky	7.1	9.3	76.2%
50	Doron Lamb	Kentucky	7.1	9.3	76.2%
51	Robbie Hummel	Purdue	7.0	9.3	75.5%
52	Deshaun Thomas	Ohio State	7.0	9.4	74.2%
53	Larry Anderson	Long Beach State	6.9	7.9	87.1%
54	Tim Frazier	Penn State	6.9	7.7	89.2%
55	Terell Parks	Western Illinois	6.9	9.6	71.8%
56	D.J. Cooper	Ohio	6.8	8.7	78.2%
57	Jeremy Lamb	Connecticut	6.8	8.1	84.1%
58	Kevin Pangos	Gonzaga	6.8	8.9	76.7%
59	Langston Galloway	Saint Joseph's	6.8	7.9	85.8%
60	Edwin Fuquan	Seton Hall	6.8	7.6	89.7%
61	Greg Mangano	Yale	6.8	8.0	85.2%
62	J'Covan Brown	Texas	6.8	8.0	84.6%
63	Ricardo Ratliffe	Missouri	6.8	11.2	60.5%
64	Henry Sims	Georgetown	6.8	11.1	61.0%
65	Ryan Broekhoff	Valparaiso	6.7	8.5	79.2%
66	Erick Green	Virginia Tech	6.7	8.9	75.4%
67	Tyler Zeller	North Carolina	6.7	10.4	64.3%
68	Velton Jones	Robert Morris	6.7	9.0	74.0%
69	John Henson	North Carolina	6.6	9.7	68.8%
70	Luke Martinez	Wyoming	6.6	10.6	62.9%
71	Donte Poole	Murray State	6.6	9.3	71.3%
72	Isaiah Wilkerson	NJIT	6.6	7.8	84.6%
73	Jared Cunningham	Oregon State	6.5	7.7	84.5%
74	Dominique Morrison	Oral Roberts	6.5	7.3	88.6%
75	Julian Mavunga	Miami (OH)	6.4	5.9	108.9%
76	Steven Pledger	Oklahoma	6.4	9.3	68.7%
77	Drew Crawford	Northwestern	6.4	7.6	83.8%
78	Quincy Acy	Baylor	6.3	8.8	71.9%
79	Javon McCrea	Buffalo	6.3	9.4	67.4%
80	Bradford Burgess	Virginia Commonwealth	6.3	7.9	80.0%
81	Hollis Thompson	Georgetown	6.3	8.7	72.5%
82	Leonard Washington	Wyoming	6.3	10.1	62.3%
83	Harrison Barnes	North Carolina	6.3	9.7	65.0%
84	Jorge Gutierrez	California	6.2	9.0	68.8%
85	John Jenkins	Vanderbilt	6.2	8.2	76.0%
86	Ryan Kelly	Duke	6.2	9.8	62.9%
87	Aaron Craft	Ohio State	6.2	8.0	77.7%
88	Victor Oladipo	Indiana	6.2	9.6	64.6%
89	Matthew Dellavedova	Saint Mary's (CA)	6.2	6.8	91.1%
90	Reggie Hamilton	Oakland	6.1	7.2	85.9%
91	Andre Roberson	Colorado	6.1	8.5	71.8%
92	Joe Harris	Virginia	6.1	8.0	75.9%
93	Colt Ryan	Evansville	6.0	7.5	80.7%
94	Sean Kilpatrick	Cincinnati	6.0	7.1	84.4%
95	Mike Muscala	Bucknell	6.0	7.6	78.8%
96	Kerron Johnson	Belmont	6.0	8.4	71.4%
97	Tony Snell	New Mexico	5.9	8.7	68.3%
98	Chace Stanback	Nevada-Las Vegas	5.9	9.0	65.8%
99	Jeffery Taylor	Vanderbilt	5.9	7.7	77.0%
100	DeAndre Kane	Marshall	5.9	7.2	81.9%

Quite a few mid-majors at the top here, but the strength-of-schedule adjustment is well-calibrated. These will probably match somewhat closely to Pomeroy's "KPOY."





* - My raw regression involves Defensive Rating, Offensive Rating, Usage%, Assist%, and Steal%.