GAME 1, NBA FINALS

Wayne Winston & more recently Kevin Pelton like to use +/- in their discussions on player performance. But Statistical plus-minus geeks like myself are dissatisfied with simple Net +/- ratings. It should be noted that I have not implemented any system that regresses towards the mean for small sample sizes. I will incorporate this later.

Here is how the Heat & Mavericks stack up in my combined system.

Adj. Rating = estimate of how much the player contributed to his team's point margin, per 100 possessions*
Contrib = estimate of a player's total contributions to their team's point margin during play

st. ORAPM = advanced stats prediction of offensive Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus
st. DRAPM = same^, except defensive RAPM
Statistical RTG = st. ORAPM + st. DRAPM

Net Plus-Minus = On-Court Team Efficiency Margin (per 100) minus Off-court Team Efficiency Margin

	Player		st. ORAPM	st. DRAPM	Net Plus-Minus	Statistical RTG	Adj RTG	Min%	Contrib
DAL	Dirk Nowitzki		1.76	3.60	40.63	5.35	11.84	84.3%	9.98
MIA	Chris Bosh		1.87	0.73	35.72	2.59	9.54	81.1%	7.74
MIA	LeBron James		6.25	-3.31	30.96	2.94	7.53	94.3%	7.10
DAL	Tyson Chandler		-0.99	1.66	21.46	0.67	5.82	70.4%	4.10
DAL	Jason Terry		-2.43	-4.25	30.96	-6.67	5.79	67.7%	3.92
MIA	Mario Chalmers		0.44	-0.66	16.58	-0.22	3.95	59.2%	2.33
MIA	Udonis Haslem		-3.87	-2.47	15.48	-6.34	2.30	61.6%	1.41
MIA	Dwyane Wade		2.82	-1.42	4.89	1.40	1.08	79.3%	0.86
MIA	Juwan Howard		-2.05	8.13	5.80	6.07	4.10	15.9%	0.65
DAL	Brendan Haywood		-3.68	13.72	-21.46	10.04	-0.98	29.6%	-0.29
DAL	Peja Stojakovic		-6.77	1.79	-2.81	-4.97	-1.21	30.7%	-0.37
DAL	DeShawn Stevenson		0.77	1.15	-15.61	1.92	-3.48	30.1%	-1.05
MIA	Mike Miller		0.04	-2.57	-6.63	-2.52	-2.72	42.1%	-1.14
MIA	Mike Bibby		-2.31	6.67	-25.36	4.36	-4.39	29.4%	-1.29
DAL	Jason Kidd		-2.75	0.35	-6.45	-2.40	-2.03	75.9%	-1.54
DAL	Jose Barea		-9.95	0.22	-15.48	-9.73	-5.52	37.8%	-2.09
DAL	Shawn Marion		0.84	2.59	-19.39	3.44	-3.89	73.6%	-2.86
MIA	Joel Anthony		-1.37	1.23	-41.27	-0.14	-10.30	37.2%	-3.83

*In case you were wondering, for the 2011 season, this is how statistical & Net plus-minuses predict (explain) RAPM ratings:

	Coefficients
Intercept	-0.081370214
s_ORAPM	0.160596108
s_DRAPM	0.373897645
Net per 100	0.253406036