| Predicted Point Margin | % chance of neutral win | ||
| 1 | North Carolina | -2.15 | 48.50% |
| 2 | Gonzaga | -1.75 | 48.13% |
| 3 | Pittsburgh | -3.6 | 43.70% |
| 4 | Georgetown | -3.33 | 43.60% |
| 5 | Arizona St. | -4.25 | 41.95% |
| 6 | Wake Forest | -4.21 | 41.84% |
| 7 | Missouri | -4.44 | 41.30% |
| 8 | Connecticut | -4.25 | 40.42% |
| 9 | West Virginia | -5.45 | 40.24% |
| 10 | Memphis | -5.25 | 38.76% |
| 11 | Louisville | -5.71 | 38.47% |
| 12 | UCLA | -5.43 | 37.99% |
There you have it. UNC has a higher % chance of win because the normal distribution assumes that Boston College was an off-day, and Michigan State was generally a pretty good day.
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