UNC has a greater chance of making the game a higher scoring margin, and thereby putting the game out of range, due to their faster-paced game. The faster you are (at high efficiencies), the higher your point margin. Here is a chart with the # of TOTAL NCAA teams that could come within 1,3,6,9,or 12 points of each team(or beat them).
Then I did some weighted averaging and rounding to give us the number of teams each would beat in a really close, then semi-close games.
|How many teams can perform against you|
|overall rk||Within x points or >||1||3||6||9||12||tight or worse||Close-med close or worse|