Duke's Weaknesses:
#1: Shot defense
This may be counter-intuitive, as Duke has one of the best AVERAGES for defensive efficiency in the nation (81.2 points / 100 possesions, #2). However, examine this:
Duke's performance on guarding the shot (or equally, how well their opponents shoot from the floor) has an extremely high correlation (as far as basketball stats go) to their final score. So, the BEST way to overcome Duke's efficiency is through good 3-point and 2-point shooting. Similarly, but not as highly correlated (R^2=.20), is an opponents' defensive rebounding %, or:
#2: Duke's Offensive Rebounding
Also, if Kyle Singler gets in foul trouble, Duke loses their leader in points, assists, rebounds, and steals.
Nothing Wake Forest does correlates as well as Duke's 'weaknesses,' but a couple of things stand out:
1) Beating them to the foul line is a plus.
The Virginia Tech game, Wake's only loss, was the most lopsided Free-Throw Rate game I have seen with any good team. While Wake had a miserable 18.5, VT had an insane 74! Both of these were by far the worst on Wake's schedule. In general, this is their highest-correlated 'changer of expected point margin'.
That's about it.
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