For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.

Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

Here We Go!!! (Into overtime!)

The (real) NCAA tournament starts in about one hour. To kick it off, I present my Overtime% for the first round.

Each game is ranked by the probability that is going into overtime*:

Here are the results

*The theoretical odds of going into overtime are lower than that of actually going into overtime**; there are a few specific things that have to happen to make the game sum to zero - the rankings are still valid though.

**End-of-40-minutes Game-scores fall under the normal distribution, but there is a significant dip around zero.

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I wish my heart were as often large as my hands.