For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.

Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

Official Tournament Picks, CONTINUED....

Here are some more numbers to help you make your picks:

"EW" means expected wins ('opening' round not included).
-Overall odds in the original efficiency simulation

-Overall odds in the LRMC simulation

-Consistency values (for each tournament team) - higher means more inconsistent

I am currently running a new efficiency simulation that uses a different formula than before to predict Percent Chance of Win.

Also, here is a quick rundown by Dean Oliver on why slow-paced teams like Wisconsin increase their likelihood of losing to less efficient teams.

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I wish my heart were as often large as my hands.