For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.

Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

Top Final Fours

The majority of huge-pool winners accurately predict the Final Four...here is a sampling of the top (seven) possible final fours that my LRMC simulation predicts.


E W SW SE Probability
Ohio St. Duke Kansas Pittsburgh 4.04%
Ohio St. Duke Kansas BYU 3.42%
Ohio St. Duke Kansas Belmont 2.10%
Ohio St. SDSU Kansas Pittsburgh 1.81%
Ohio St. Duke Notre Dame Pittsburgh 1.51%
Washington Duke Kansas Pittsburgh 0.97%
Ohio St. Duke Purdue Pittsburgh 0.88%


If you're doing a multiple-bracket pool, this might be useful...updated simulation results coming soon.

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I wish my heart were as often large as my hands.