This post is dedicated to my Mother, who wants my tournament picks :-D.
I have looked at every pick and noted its overall value in ESPN's tournament challenge.
Ohio St. winning the championship is the highest value not because they have a great chance of winning the championship, but putting them there
Here's the Spreadsheet (version 1, efficiency ratings)
For the mathematically inclined:
I used DSMok1's adjusted ratings and ran ~10,000 simulations of the bracket to find each team's odds of getting to each round.
Each round value = Sum of all Previous (Round Value * Odds of Winning That Round) + Round Value * Odds of Winning That Round.
Of note: these values did NOT include the probable home-court advantage (for example, UNC plays in Charlotte). I will add this soon if I feel its warranted.
will you be posting your bracket picks?
ReplyDelete