For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.

Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN


This post is dedicated to my Mother, who wants my tournament picks :-D.

I have looked at every pick and noted its overall value in ESPN's tournament challenge.
Ohio St. winning the championship is the highest value not because they have a great chance of winning the championship, but putting them there

Here's the Spreadsheet (version 1, efficiency ratings)

For the mathematically inclined:

I used DSMok1's adjusted ratings and ran ~10,000 simulations of the bracket to find each team's odds of getting to each round.

Each round value = Sum of all Previous (Round Value * Odds of Winning That Round) + Round Value * Odds of Winning That Round.

Of note: these values did NOT include the probable home-court advantage (for example, UNC plays in Charlotte). I will add this soon if I feel its warranted.

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About Me

I wish my heart were as often large as my hands.